Keep the cash here & just watch us grow!

Just who has their finger on the pulse?

This week IBEC predicated extremely strong economy growth for Ireland Inc over the course of 2015 and figures that are well ahead of Government and EU estimates. In fact IBEC are predicting a growth in the Irish economy of 5.4% and they are also indicating that by the end of 2015 unemployment will be fall below 9%.

These are really some very strong headline figures, if they are in fact to be delivered, and if IBEC are able to predict with such accuracy we have to ask why then that ISME’s are less confident about an Ireland Inc recovery.

A recent survey by ISME’s to its own membership resulted in a press statement that business confidence is actually waning and that SME’s are increasingly pessimistic about the economy. The ISME survey polled some circa 930 businesses and stated that there was “a reduction in 11 of the 12 indicators used to gauge confidence among small and medium-sized enterprises” (source Irish Times.com 10^th April 2015). According to the study, business confidence fell by 50 per cent to 39 per cent in the quarter under review while expectations were down 65 per cent to 57 per cent. The declines come after steady increases over the past 12 months.

In addition to the above business bodies both stating their case we also have Government stating that recovery is also well on the way and that they are also targeting reductions in unemployment and strong growth in the domestic economy.

With everyone saying one thing and another just who are we to believe and just how do these predictions and forecasts actually affect Waterford and the South East region?

Ireland Inc is currently witnessing a three tier recovery with Dublin way out in front and heading the Championship Table, followed in close second by the south west/Cork/Limerick/Galway, and propping up the table we find the North West region and the South East region. There have been various Action Plans for Jobs and various recovery plans tabled and printed over the last three to four years but to date we are still to see and witness accelerated growth in the very regions that need most of the help on offer.

Unfortunately, we will continue to see an unbalanced approach to any recovery because you need to have real heavyweight political clout in order to fight the investment case for both FDI and domestic growth. To complicate matters Government and the political system are now on election footing and gearing up for a general election this time next year. You only have to look across the Irish Sea to see the political manoeuvrings currently going with manifestos promising this and manifestos promising that. All would seem rosy when elections are just around the corner but reality bites when we look at just how much ground the South East has to make up.

There is no doubt that there is some business confidence across the South East and yet we know that many businesses are having to find and secure business outside the South East region as the rate of economic growth here is slower than the rest of the country.

That in itself is not a bad thing and encouraging businesses to chase and secure contracts in non-traditional geographical areas is in general good for a business as they are spreading their risk. However, we do need to see stimulus packages in place to make doing business closer to home the real game breaker for everyone. This will help keep the cost of being in business low and will help to keep local incomes be spent locally and keep local commercial business rates and taxes coming in to the purses of local councils, to be once again spent locally. We do need to create a culture of generating money locally to be spent locally.

So which business organisations are we to believe when it comes to predicting the strength and recovery across Ireland Inc and in particular the South East?

We have to judge our own local economy’s recovery on a few key facts that our unemployment rate is still circa 3 to 4 percent above the national average (which of course is unacceptable no matter what spin is put on this figure), our youth unemployment is also considerably higher than the national average, third level educational attainment is lower than the national average and our disposable income per household is much lower than the national average! These few stark statements show that we need South East solutions to a South East regional problem of a much weaker recovery than the rest of Ireland Inc.

But what can be done?

The simplest and easiest way to start any local recovery is a commitment to shop local and on the ground the Waterford Business Group have always championed this approach and this commitment. We can see from the recent public relations that this Group have even engaged with Waterford ex-pats to push the “keep it local message”.

In fact the group have gone much further than that in recent weeks and months. The Waterford Business Group have been instrumental in the award of the Purple Flag accreditation, are an integral part of the City Centre Management Group, have recently provided free customer care courses to some 60 plus staff of Waterford Businesses, are about to pilot a scheme with Waterford Library Services and are doing so much more than they will ever be credited for. Yet because this highly organised and driven Group are not seen as a “pillar organisation” like IBEC, ISME, Chambers etc they perhaps will never get the credit for the volume of voluntary work they do on behalf of Waterford’s many businesses and the people of Waterford.

To sum up there is an organisation with its finger on the pulse in terms of where Waterford and the South East are in terms of an economic recovery, they work with the vast majority of businesses across the City and they making a significant difference to the City, County and region.

So the next time you want a commentary on just where our recovery is across the South East is just ask the right people, in the right organisation, that are doing far more for the jersey than can ever be put into print.

“Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.” George Bernard Shaw.