They think it is all over!

Well it will be on Friday 26^th February for the next five year. Or will it?

In under 24 hours we will all be in the solitude of an election ballot booth, pencil or pen in hand, a ballot paper facing us, displaying in alphabetical order the very best profile shots of the 12 candidates on offer here in Waterford City and County.

If you were to believe all the election spin we are reading, hearing and seeing on our national TV channels, then every party is going to get the number one vote from every doorstep visited. This of course means that all 12 of our candidates will be elected!

In our four TD constituency we will of course only see four TD’s represent us in the next Dáil and these four good men or women will hope to have five years to make a real difference to Waterford and the people they represent. So making the right decision will have a bearing on how our City and County perform over the next five years and yet I do feel that there may be a minority Government formed and we will be back in the same sterile election booth sooner rather than later.

Quite clearly there will be some very interesting shenanigans post #GE16 when the main political parties start the political scrambling and begin to barter a better deal with Independents, the smaller parties and anyone who can be bought and sold for a handful of gold.

We may even end up with an old historical political map where the odd few battle hardened Independents can hold a coalition Government to ransom. Where support votes can be guaranteed with vast sums of money for roads, for schools and of course the Independents' favourites hospitals and education.

Though only living here in Waterford City for fifteen years I do recall in previous Dáils many political bounty hunters making lots of hay whilst the sun shone with cobbled together Governments that were literally held together with no more than sticky tape. This type of Government is no good to man or beast and in fact makes an utter farce of the current political system.

Do we really wish to see the return to the omnishambles of a Government where the future governance of the whole country is held to a payoff by the localised whims and promised votes of country bumpkin politics? This type of political rule is unfortunately still at large in Ireland and we need to move away from such Dickensian ways and practices. But I fear this time around the politics will not have engaged with sufficient “new” voters to move us in the right direction and deliver a better and more transparent political system.

Rest assured that the usual suspects who have graced the front pages of our board sheets, for all the wrong reasons over the last five years, will be returned to the Dáil for #GE16. These local “cowboy politicians” have for some unexplained rationale lots of grassroots support, in some abundance, as there is no real alternative to the political malaise that grips the Country.

I have often wondered if the political Status Quo actually suits the current politics we have to live with on a daily basis, as to have to engage with potential new voters takes time, effort, and above all an awful lot of imagination.

We all know that imagination and our current political representatives are not a marriage made in heaven! So it may well take another generation to make a real change in the way we engage and vote in Ireland or it might take a hung Government and a few months of political infighting, bickering and squabbling to finally get all voters to see the woods for the trees. 

#GE16 will not go down in history as the most exciting, but do hold your breath as another #GE may just be around the corner.

Is the excitement building?

The Waterford media was awash last week with various General Election candidates finally launching their campaigns, media profiles in our excellent local newspapers and of course the promise of some robust debating in a series of US styled pre-election public, or invitation only, debates.

Of course we will never really know what we are getting with the new untested candidates and all we can hope for is that their rhetoric will deliver in the Ronseal way – “It does exactly what it says on the tin.”

But I am not sure if these new candidates will ever get the chance to deliver on their promises as they will have an enormous, almost gargantuan, task of uprooting the existing established sitting TD’s.

It would appear that with the exception of maybe one TD change the people of Waterford may well have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. After all we are seeing, albeit exceedingly small, green shoots of recovery across the South East and this in turn can only benefit Waterford. 

When push comes to shove and you have a pencil in your hand, with the ballot paper in front of you, are you really going to vote for a political sea change that could in all likelihood make the hard earned Euro in your pocket worth less with the reckless tick of a ballot paper box?

Off and running.

I would hazard a guess that people will vote for some form of stability and a better the devil you know attitude. It may well materialise that we do not see wholesale changes in the political map and we will end up with many of the same faces returning to Dublin. Real political change takes an awful lot longer than the full term of a Government and new political parties take even longer to establish and gain suitable foundations to build an organisation that can challenge the norm.

Our “Frontier Ministers” have been recently waxing lyrically about Waterford’s strength as part of a growing SE economy and being at the very heart of a multi-campus “Technological University”, which now appears to be back on the radar just in time for GE16. I have no doubt that we will continue to hear about how working together is a sound economic plan for Waterford and the SE but in reality we are still very much a fractured region with very little in the way of a one direction plan.

Yes, working collectively as region is the only way forward but the half hearted efforts to date have seen the erosion of our hospital services, a nibbling away at our third level institution, boundary arguments that could have filled the plot of a wild west cowboy movie and the general lack of urgency on a gateway status have all hindered the delivery of a meaningful recovery across the SE.

In last week’s column I stated some statistics around the Gross Added Value (GAV) of jobs in the SE and the GAV figure is extraordinarily low and this must surely be of concern to all the registered voters in Waterford and across the whole of the SE.

If we cannot attract significant high end investment to Waterford at this moment in time when, as we are continually being told, we are an exceptional region for investment, then what will happen if we allow the continued erosion of our third level education establishment, the continued reduction in our hospital services and the public bickering on boundary issues.

We could and will continue to be a PR nightmare if these types of issues are not fixed with a cohesive and sustainable plan.

So, should we be excited about the upcoming GE16? Yes we should and we must do our bit to ask the hard questions and engage with the Politics, because that is just what we are not expected to do.

I guarantee that a few tough questions on the doorstep will either make or break any canvasser and it will probably be a surprise that you asked in the first place. Try it!

Our jobs and retail conundrum.

"Scoop" - a very good digger.

I like to think that I am a good “digger”, not may I add in the garden, as most things I plant unfortunately die. The green fingers in the Garland Clan definitely belong to the fairer sex – I could not even grow my GIY garlic!

What I mean is that when I wish to write about a particular topic I do my very best to dig out some research or at the very least I look for some statistical information that will help get my writing juices flowing. This in turn allows me the time to bash away on my keyboard, time and time again, so that I now really enjoy expressing my views and opinions though the medium of print.

I regularly use a number of reference sites, on the old Interweb, and the Central Statistic Office (CSO) site was used to last week garner some interesting statistics about the regional variations in a measure called Gross Added Value (GAV). This measures “the difference between production value and intermediate consumption and represents the value added by the firm.” This is a great site for statistics but I do feel that it is overly complicated to use and maybe this is deliberate so as to dissuade people from engaging.

This GAV figure is measured in Euro and the state’s average for 2012 (the last statistical data point) is €34,308, Dublin measured €51,839 and the South East came in at €23,588. Quite a significant variation then across the country, as you would expect. The South East’s high for GAV was back in 2007 when the figure was at €29,884, but this was still significantly below the state average for that year of €39,522.

This GAV figures reflects the low wages economies across the South East which should, in theory, make the SE a more competitive inward investment option.

However, a multi-national will not invest into a region based on low wages alone, it may need a specific skill set or a multi-faceted spread of skills that will ultimately help generate profit to offset what would be a multimillion Euro investment. The stakes are very high!

The low GAV also backs up the statistics that show, right across the SE, there is significantly lower disposable income for our very localised economy. After all if you have only €50 to spend at the end of the week you will spend €50 and if you have €300 the difference this makes is to our economy is considerable. This much lower disposable income directly influences the retailing opportunities in our City Centre and across the whole SE region.

Our current conundrum is this.

To get a better retail mix and a better retail branding in the City we need to see more money being spent in our local economy. But we cannot increase this spend until such times as we attract better higher paid jobs. But attracting those better higher paid jobs will affect our GAV and possibly makes us even more unattractive to future investment.

It actually is a very difficult set of balls to be juggling.

But the balls have been juggled now for many, many years and yet we appear to be no further forward in actually making Waterford and the SE an important place for increased FDI and other indigenous investment streams.

We can only improve the Status Quo by radically looking at just how attractive we are for investment, because the route we have currently chosen is clearly not working. The City, County and Region need to look for far-reaching solutions that will make the SE THE most attractive place to invest.

 

We need to be better than every other region full stop!

Perhaps one quick immediate solution is to stop looking at commercial rates as a simple cash cow and start actually incentivising investment through a lower rate structure and essentially reducing the cost of being in business in Waterford.

If we do this the future statistics will show that in 2016 was in fact a benchmark year, a year when we put Waterford back on the investment map. New foundations are needed so let us start building them now.

Time to get Political!

Democratic Party poster used in the 1960 US election!

There has been a flurry of political activity over the last week with two general election launches here in Waterford; David Cullinane’s Sinn Féin election campaign launch took place in the Granville Hotel, in Waterford City, and Mary Butler’s Fianna Fáil campaign launch took place in Micilins, in Kilrossanty. Incidentally, a place I have only discovered recently whilst cycling around our wonderful county on my Penny-farthing.

It was interesting to note the difference between these two launches, with one clearly City centric focused and the other County focused. I would have thought that the clever and most appropriate option would of course be to combine both a City and County launch thus getting a broad acceptance that you are going to “win” a seat in the next Government for the WHOLE of Waterford’s population and not just one geographical area.

Both launches rolled out a current political heavyweight and Mary Lou clearly got her and Cullinane’s PR bandwagon off to a flying start with her dulcet tones gracing the airwaves of WLR FM on Friday morning, and Billy giving her both barrels on the Proportional Electoral system and just where were Cullinane’s transfer votes going to come from. It will be interesting to see if Cullinane can in fact generate a decent number of transfers and I would envisage that his seat will be decided on just how he engages with the electorate outside of that SF comfort blanket.

Don't lean too far!

The two contrasting launches were also covered across the plethora of social media we are now bombarded with on our phones, PC’s, laptops and tablets. The Granville Hotel appeared to be hopping and there was much activity from the strategically placed press corps, seated just behind the top table for this launch, and in Kilrossanty it appeared to be a much more “sober” affair with less hooting and hollering from those in attendance and more of a gathering of friends than a media scrum.

In addition, there has been much sharing of betting odds across social media and according to the most recent odds supplied from the likes of Paddy Power Deasy, Halligan, Coffey and Cullinane are pretty much the favourites to be returned in the next election to represent our Waterford constituency.

Of course, betting odds in an election are very fickle and difficult to forecast and we only have to remind ourselves of the UK elections last May. Nobody predicted the outcome and even the final “live exit poll” on the BBC was poo-pooed by Paddy Ashdown, who stated live on air that he would eat his hat if the exit poll results were correct. Well, Paddy ended up eating not just his hat but his whole wardrobe, shoes and all.

It will certainly be an interesting few weeks ahead and all our local newspapers will begin to allocate more and more ink to the General Election of 2016. We are beginning to read election focused headlines as we all start to get excited by all the thoughts of reading about the latest political manoeuvrings and the potential of political skulduggery.

“A vote for Paudie Coffey” was declared one of our local columns. “Getting ready for election” was another editorial headline.

Will you vote to keep the Status Quo?

As we gear ourselves up to start thinking about the next election rest assured that if you wish to change the political map or keep the status quo than we must engage our existing politicians and we must interrogate our aspiring politicians.

The odds are extremely close and yet nobody really knows how we will vote until we have a ballot paper and a pencil on our hand and we are in the confines of the polling station.

However you decide to vote and everyone should vote, do a wee bit of homework and prepare for the next election. The last outcome you want to see is that of your preferred candidate missing election to the next Government by one vote – a vote that you failed to deliver by not understanding the candidates and the voting system in place.